NETANYAHU’S LEBANON GAMBITThe second front has restored the prime minister’s political standing
One way to understand the dramatic events of the past week, and the restitution of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political standing in Israel, is to recall a famous statement of Admiral Ernest King, the US chief of naval operations throughout the Second World War. As the war neared its end, so the story goes, King was told by an aide that a group of reporters wanted an interview with him. “When it’s over,” he replied, “tell them who won.” It could be Netanyahu’s motto today. I was surprised to be told recently by a well-informed official in Washington that things had changed dramatically in the war in Gaza—in Israel’s favor. There is no longer a possibility or a need for a ceasefire in Gaza, the official said. I further learned that ceasefire talk had been muted because, obviously, there is now a renewed Israeli war against the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Amid the continuing carnage, Bibi’s standing inside Israel has soared as the death toll in Lebanon has risen. The Israeli high command now believes, as has been reported in the Israeli media, that Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who orchestrated the murderous attack on Israel on October 7, may be dead and the Israeli Defense Force “is now in a ‘mopping-up phase’ of the tunnel war with Hamas.” The American official told me that “there’s been no communication from Sinwar in the past two or three weeks.” The implication was clear: somehow Israeli or American intelligence had been tracking or monitoring Sinwar’s communications, if not his precise underground location. There is little hope that any of the remaining Israeli hostages will be left alive. This is a conclusion that has yet to be shared with the increasingly anxious Israeli public. (I must note here that the six hostages who were executed in a tunnel late last August were not killed, as I inaccurately recently reported, because their Hamas captors heard the noises of an Israeli sapper team whose mission was to destroy tunnels. The mission took place because the tunnel location of the hostages had become known and an Israeli special forces team was assigned to attack the site and seize the hostages. The six were found dead because there was no other exit for the guards. I do not know whether the guards were killed in a shootout or took their own lives. The full, tragic story was not made known at the time by the Israeli military, a decision that is hard to question.) There are other facts, I was told, that indicate the Gaza war is in a mopping-up phrase. There have been no Israeli bombing missions over Gaza since last Friday (although Al-Jazeera reported that fifty people were killed in Gaza on Tuesday in various attacks), and many of the Israeli reservists who have been heavily involved in the war since last fall are in the process of being replaced by regular Israeli army soldiers. There have been no ceasefire meetings or significant discussions with Hamas since the Israeli assassination last July 31 of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas who was in Tehran to celebrate the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, a four-time member of the Iranian parliament. Pezeshkian, a moderate, repeatedly says that he wishes to play a constructive role in world affairs, beginning with renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Just a few weeks ago, Netanyahu was in trouble at home and abroad as the war in Gaza seemed to be an endless pit of horror. Hamas still seemed to be capable of putting up a fight, and the world was recoiling from the constant Israeli bombings of Gaza, the growing casualties, and the desperation of the surviving residents there. Netanyahu was continuing to disregard the anxieties of President Joe Biden and his foreign policy aides, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who were in seemingly endless meetings in Egypt and Qatar and failing to achieve a ceasefire that would result in a bombing pause and the return of the surviving Israeli hostages. The IDF, composed largely of reservists who had been called up for what was turning out to be an endless commitment, was fraying as the war dragged on, and the Israeli reservists inevitably turned on the civilian population in Gaza. Just last week a group of IDF soldiers were caught on video throwing four bodies—it was assumed all were dead—from the roof of a battered building in the West Bank to the street. The American official, who has long dealt with Israeli issues, ruefully explained his view of the long-standing Middle East impasse: “The Israelis want the Palestinians to be peaceful and accept their fate. The Palestinians objected and fought back. A new day in the Middle East will never come.” Last week, as the current Israeli impasse with Hezbollah was turning murderous, I had a long talk with an Israeli hero of earlier war—he served in an elite commando unit—whose grandchildren are nearing a one-year deployment in Gaza. He was full of contempt for Netanyahu and his refusal to agree to a ceasefire. There are families in Tel Aviv, he told me, who are leaving the country every day “to get their children out of the kill.” He remains convinced that the war with Hamas was lost well before the October 7 attack when those in charge of Israel’s most important intelligence unit, dealing with signals intelligence, ignored the reports of a senior female officer who repeatedly warned of the coming Hamas attack. The Israeli veteran, who spent his career in special units, said he understood what happened. The men running the unit told the woman, a colonel, in essence, that “you ladies are here to bring me coffee.” It’s increasingly evident that a full inquiry into the military and intelligence failures of October 7, once promised by Netanyahu, will not take place as long as Netanyahu is still in office. The retired officer, whose negative views of Netanyahu I have heard about for years, also told me he is totally supportive of Bibi’s current war against Sheik Hassan Nasrallah and the Hezbollah militia. “We will nail Hezbollah,” he said, because its defeat would be a blow against Iran, “and Iran controls Hezbollah.” Netanyahu, seemingly on the political ropes inside Israel and around the world, is suddenly in full bloom as the leader of the expanding war against Hezbollah. Most Israelis fear Hassan Nasrallah, its Shiite leader, for his close ties to Shiite Iran, long viewed by Israel as a potential nuclear power and its most dangerous enemy. The Biden administration and Congress are joined to the hip with Israel when it comes to Iran, though its closeness to nuclear weapons capability has long been exaggerated. Hezbollah demonstrated its support for Sunni Hamas after the devastating Israeli bombing of Gaza began by initiating a series of missile and rocket attacks on Israeli cities and villages as far as 35 kilometers south of the border with Lebanon. The Hezbollah attacks eventually led to the evacuation of some 67,000 Israeli citizens, who were moved into temporary housing. Israel responded by bombing Hezbollah and other targets in southern Lebanon. That war has exploded with renewed ferocity in the past two weeks. Nasrallah added to the tension by authorizing his missiles to strike targets up to 50 kilometers south of the Israeli border, putting the historic Israeli city of Haifa in peril as well as Tel Aviv. The missile and bomb exchanges remained at a low intensity until last week, when Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, triggered explosives that had earlier been implanted in a shipment of 6,000 foreign-made pagers that were purchased by Hezbollah and distributed to its senior leadership and soldiers. Many of the pagers inevitably ended up with the family members of Hezbollah officials and fighters, and the ensuing chaos when all were triggered by an Israeli signal became front-page news around the world. Israel’s electronic reach was demoralizing and terrifying, both for the technology involved and the obvious conclusion that Netanyahu had escalated his confrontation with Hezbollah while ignoring pressure from the Biden administration to agree to a ceasefire. I had a talk with another well-informed Israeli veteran, who was seriously wounded in an earlier war, who explained that the Israeli decision to trigger the explosives was not the planned act of war that it seemed to be. He said the embedded materials were triggered only because Mossad learned that its action had been inadvertently discovered by a few Hamas officials who had brought their pagers in for routine repairs. It was that discovery that led Netanyahu or one of his aides to authorize the attack. I got no answer when I asked how anyone in Mossad or any Israeli intelligence service could uncover such a random fact. Instead, I was told Israel’s secret triggering of the pagers was “a brilliant special op but not a plan to start a war.” The pager blasts are estimated to have killed dozens of people, including children, and injured thousands across Lebanon. The Israeli veteran also said more than three thousand Hezbollah soldiers were injured, many of them seriously. If there was concern at the top of the Israeli military or civilian authority about a rebuke for such tactics from Washington, it was misplaced. There was no reaction from the Biden administration and the American media has consistently viewed Hezbollah primarily as a terrorist organization, despite its presence in the last decade as a significant member of the Lebanese parliament and government. If anything, the reaction was awe and respect for the attack. David Ignatius, the Washington Post columnist, noted that Israel had not taken immediate credit for the attack: “it didn’t need to. An attack of this sophistication and daring in Lebanon could not have been staged by any other nation. The video scenes of Hezbollah fighters being blown to the floor by their own communication devices sent an unmistakable message to the Iranian-backed militia. We own you. We can penetrate every space in which you operate.” The next day, Israel doubled down and triggered explosions in walkie-talkies throughout Lebanon. Newspapers reported the death of at least twenty civilians and the wounding of 450 more amid widespread panic and terror throughout the county. Michael Walzer, a renowned political theorist, writing in the New York Times, described Israel’s actions in blunt language as “terrorist attacks by a state that has consistently condemned terrorist attacks on its own citizens.” Walzer has written on just and unjust wars and supported Israel’s ferocious response to the Hamas attack on October 7 as justified. But the wrongdoing in this case, Walzer wrote, “was Israel’s, and the plotters had to know that at least some of the people hurt would be innocent men, women, and children.” The main plotter was Israel’s prime minister, who authorized the use of the militarily useless terror attacks that could only bring Hezbollah and Lebanon closer to war. Netanyahu has understood that a war with Hezbollah is a way to bolster his declining popularity in Israel and perhaps some of the world. The Biden administration has supplied Israel with an estimated 68 percent of its arms, and Netanyahu has treated the president and his secretary of state and other diplomatic officials as pawns to be led on. In his farewell speech this week to the UN General Assembly, Joe Biden talked about his ceasefire proposal, seemingly unaware that the fate of hostages had been overtaken by events, beginning with the assassination of Haniyeh. But Biden did say, referring to the current crisis between Hezbollah and Israel: “Full scale war is not in anyone’s interest.” Vice President Kamala Harris has been silent on the issue in the closing weeks of her presidential campaign, as has Donald Trump. The political axiom that foreign policy has little to do with presidential campaigns remains safe for now. The one political figure left standing and talking is Netanyahu, still the man of the hour in Israel. It was déjà vu for a retired Lebanese government official and longtime resident of Beirut who lived through the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel that ended with the saturation bombing of South Beirut, a Shiite area where Hezbollah was dominant. “There is no Washington now,” he told me. “It is a vacuum. As for Bibi, it is a historical opportunity. And the war he is seeking will be awful. He is awful. And it will take a long time, and he will be exhausted in Lebanon.” I have written about the 2006 war between Israel and a seemingly outgunned Lebanon in which the powers that be in Israel were confident of success. In the end it was, by all accounts, as I wrote then, a wash. An all-out war this time will be torrential. |